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 rendspotting |
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| Kevin Pullein
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| Fri Oct 3, 2008 |
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One of the fundamental rules
of gambling is that you should bet at the best available odds. The time at
which those become available on football matches will differ from team to team
and market to market. This means that the timing of a bet can have a
significant impact on profit or loss over a season.
When betting opened
on a 2006 World Cup tie, the following prices were available on Betfair: 1.72
Germany, 3.8 the draw and 6.4 Poland. As the referee blew his whistle to kick
off, they were rather different: 1.46 Germany, 4.9 the draw and 8.6 Poland. The
example illustrates how in general the prices available for favourites are
likely to shorten as kick-off nears while those for outsiders are likely to
lengthen. |
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It follows that if a strong team are being
offered at a good price, bettors should get on as quickly as they can. If a
weak team are being offered at a good price, wait. They are likely to be
available at a better price later on. A large number of bets are placed shortly
before kick-off and most of them, naturally enough, are on the most fancied
competitors.
In non-result markets - bookings, corners etc - the best
policy is nearly always to bet early. These are the markets in which bookmakers
are most likely to have radically different opinions and someone will be wrong.
The first bookmaker to release prices in a market will not know if they
are very different from those of every other bookmaker. As other bookmakers
release their prices, the initial bookmaker gradually becomes aware their odds
are out of line and they have made a mistake. As time goes on, out-of-line
prices tend to disappear.
Professional gamblers say betting at the best
available odds can be the difference for them between profit and loss over a
campaign. Every punter can profit from this knowledge by betting at the right
time.
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