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Kevin Pullein
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Friday May 09, 2008
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The Football League play-offs
provide great drama and excitement but not a great number of goals. It is one
of the most important things anyone needs to know if they are betting on games
in this season's competitions, the first of which starts tonight.
In
the 21 seasons from 1986-87, when play-offs were introduced, to 2006-07, the
average number of goals scored in ordinary Football League games was 2.6. In
the play-offs it was much lower. The average number of goals scored in
semi-final first legs was 2.2 and the average number of goals scored in
semi-final second legs was 2.4. |
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In most knockout competitions second legs
are higher-scoring than first legs but Football League play-off semi-final
second legs produced significantly fewer goals than ordinary Football League
games. The average number of goals in one-legged play-off finals was also 2.4.
In those same 21 seasons 52% of all conventional Football League games
finished with fewer than 2.5 goals, the most popular goals betting line.
Sixty-three per cent of all play-off semi-final first legs finished with fewer
than 2.5 goals. In other words average true odds about fewer than 2.5 goals
being scored in normal Football League games would have been 10-11 but in
play-off semi-final first legs they would have been as short as 4-7. The
proportion of play-off semi-final second legs and one-legged finals that
finished with fewer than 2.5 goals was 55%.
Inevitably play-off ties
are tense contests between teams of broadly similar ability who know that
results could be decided by one flash of skill, one small mistake. And the
prize for the eventual winners is extremely valuable: promotion. If anything,
these are occasions to be betting against goals.
Because the atmosphere
is so charged, tempers can fray and card counts can be higher than usual. With
10 points awarded for each yellow card and 25 for each red, average bookings
index make-ups in ordinary League games were 33. In play-off semi-finals they
were 42. Curiously, however, in play-off finals they were only a perfectly
normal 33, perhaps because players were awed by the grandeur of the occasion.
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