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Kevin Pullein
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Friday April 25, 2008
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Value for money is most
likely to be found in the betting markets that sound the most outlandish - such
as the time of the first corner. In the major, result-related markets, there
are now so many bookmakers taking so much money that prices are usually very
accurate. It is in the minor markets that they more often make mistakes and the
odds about an early corner are sometimes too big.
To explain why this
happens we need to consider the relationship between the total number of
corners awarded during a game and the times at which they occur. The more there
are likely to be, the earlier the first one is likely to arrive. |
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The bookmaker Paddy Power, which pioneered
fixed-odds betting on the time of the first corner, quotes prices for most
televised matches about an early first corner, a late first corner and no
corners at all. Never bet on no corners occurring, even though it is always
offered at 100-1. The true odds are much larger. More than 22,000 Premier and
Football League games have been played during the past 11 seasons and none of
them finished without a single corner having been taken.
Paddy Power
usually defines an early first corner as one taken within 1-8 minutes. In 53%
of Premier League games played during the past two seasons, the first corner
was taken within that timeframe. To get a better idea of how the prospects of
an early first corner vary, divide Premier League teams into three groups -
those whose games averaged no more than 10.5 corners, those whose games
averaged 10.6 to 11.5 and those whose games averaged more than 11.5.
In
the lowest group only 48% of games saw a corner taken within eight minutes.
This rose to 53% in the middle group and 56% in the high group. In this market,
the secret is to estimate how many corners there are likely to be and bet if
similar games in the past have produced an early first corner more often than
any bookmaker's odds imply.
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