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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday February 23,
2007 |
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Backing mean defences can earn
generous pay-outs for punters betting on teams to keep clean sheets
In almost half of all football matches, at least one team fails to
score. It is a startling illustration of what former England manager Sir Walter
Winterbottom regarded as the essence of the game's appeal. That is it asks the
players to do something very hard: get the ball into the net. It also points us
towards a potentially profitable bet.
On odds comparison websites such
as bestbetting.com, you will find a small number of bookmakers who offer bets
on whether or not both teams will score. The possibility that can sometimes
represent value for money is that they will not. In 48.5% of Premiership and
Football League games played during the past 10 seasons, at least one of the
teams failed to appear on the scoresheet. In a typical match, therefore, it is
not much bigger than an even-money shot. |
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In 10 of the 12 Championship fixtures
played in midweek, you could back either or both teams not to score at even
money or better. In most matches, the price is already close to fair - which
means that bookmakers have to make only a very small error in assessment before
the price quoted becomes less than fair to them and more than fair to you. This
outcome is possible in games that are likely to be both one-sided and
low-scoring. The more unevenly matched the teams, the less likely it is that
both will score. The fewer goals that are scored in total, the less likely it
becomes that both teams will manage at least one.
The teams whose games
have consistently satisfied both those conditions in the Premiership are
Chelsea and Liverpool rather than Arsenal and Manchester United, whose fixtures
tend to produce more goals. All four of them, however, are much better than
nearly everyone else that they meet.
In 65% of the Premiership games
that Chelsea and Liverpool have played during the three seasons they have been
managed by Jose Mourinho and Rafael Benítez, at least one team (usually
the opposition) failed to score.
The figure for Arsenal and United
games during the same period is only 54%. It is a difference that bettors might
sometimes be able to exploit profitably, starting tomorrow when Liverpool play
host to Neil Warnock's Sheffield United at Anfield. Kevin Pullein is football
tipster for the Racing Post
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