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Kevin Pullein
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Friday February 1, 2008
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The best "goal-time" bets
are those predicting a late start to the scoring in games that are likely to be
lopsided. On paper there were few easier home fixtures this season for the
elite teams than Arsenal v Wigan, Manchester United v Sunderland or Liverpool v
Fulham. The home team won each game but none of the goals was scored earlier
than the 72nd minute. Bear that in mind when betting on other supposedly
unbalanced contests, starting with Liverpool v Sunderland tomorrow.
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It is true that the more goals there are
likely to be, the earlier the first is likely to be scored. However, bookmakers
sometimes overlook the fact that in fixtures that seem mismatched the
favourites should be expected to score a comparatively large number of goals
but the outsiders should be expected to score a comparatively small number. The
total number of goals scored on such occasions is often not exceptionally high.
Consequently, the prospects of a late start to the scoring are not so low, as
the following figures illustrate.
The average number of goals scored in
Premier League games over the past 10 seasons was 2.6. In Arsenal and
Manchester United home games - most of which were apparent mismatches - the
average number of goals scored was higher, but only slightly at 3.0. In 13% of
all those games the scoring did not start until the final half-hour. The
proportion of Arsenal and Manchester United home games in which the scoring
started during the final 30 minutes was lower but again only slightly at 11%.
When any of the "big four" play at home to the weakest teams, you will
be offered up to 16-1 about the first goal being scored between the 61st and 75
minutes, and up to 25-1 about it being scored between the 76th and 90th
minutes. If you back both, you effectively receive almost 10-1 about the first
goal being scored during the last half an hour. The true odds are probably
nearer 8-1. It will always be a long shot but not always quite as long a shot
as the bookmakers' odds would have us believe.
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