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Kevin Pullein
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Friday January 18, 2008
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Bookies fret over cracking form of
Britain's revitalised No1
One of the most important things a bettor
needs to know about the African Cup of Nations is where it is being played. The
2008 tournament starts on Sunday in Ghana and on six of the past seven
occasions when the tournament was staged in west Africa it was won by a country
from west Africa.
In fact there is a well established pattern of
countries from each region of the continent performing better in their own
region than they do elsewhere. The figures which follow are from the last 22
Cup of Nations tournaments, those with a modern-style format, including
preliminary groups. |
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Overall, 11 winners came from west Africa
but seven of them occurred when the tournament was being staged there, and only
four when it was being held elsewhere. Seven winners in total came from north
Africa but as many as six of them occurred when the tournament was played in
north Africa, only one when it was being staged in another region of the
continent.
Not only have countries from west and north Africa tended to
hog the trophy, they have also tended to hog the staging rights as well.
Astonishingly, only one of the 26 tournaments has been staged in the half of
the continent that falls below the equator - in 1996, when the hosts were South
Africa.
In the past Fifa rankings were a useful indicator of which
countries would do well. Between 1994 and 2006, 17 of the 28 groups at the
finals were won by the country with the highest Fifa ranking - 61%. In Ghana,
the highest ranked country in each group comes from west Africa - Guinea,
Nigeria, Cameroon and Senegal.
However, two words of caution. First,
the Fifa ranking process was changed after the last World Cup and since then
the rankings have been a less reliable guide. And second, the hosts tend to do
exceptionally well, as if they benefit from both a home-region and a
home-country advantage. Ghana start in Group A against Guinea. Eleven of the 26
previous hosts and co-hosts have won the tournament, a success rate of 42%.
Kevin Pullein is football tipster for the Racing Post
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