Main Menu Columns Trenspotting No.1 2 3 4 5 6 No.7 8 9 10 11 No.12 13 14 15 No.16 17 18 19 No.20 21 22 23 No.24 25 26 27 No.28 29 30 31 No.32 33 34 35 No.36 37 38 39 No.40 41 42 43 No.44 45 Next Latest	.	| Home   | Index   | Info   | This Week   | Poker   | News   | Email 16/05/2008 No.46 rendspotting           Kevin Pullein Friday May 16, 2008       There are two things that might be useful to know if you intend to bet on the finals of the FA Cup or the Champions League. The first is that even when the Cup final involves teams with very different abilities, it tends to produce very few goals. The second is that in games between the top English clubs there tend to be significantly fewer yellow and red cards in the Champions League than in the Premier League. IIn the Cup, it is tempting to assume that if a team are expected to win easily they should do so by a big score. In the latter stages, that assumption is usually wrong. In six of the past seven FA Cup finals between teams from different divisions there were fewer than 2.5 goals - the exception was in 2004 when Manchester United beat the Championship side Millwall 3-0. And in almost two-thirds of FA Cup semi-finals between teams from different divisions in the past 35 years, there were fewer than 2.5 goals.         As a Premier League side, Portsmouth are strong favourites to beat the Championship team Cardiff tomorrow. However, under 2.5 goals at 4-6 represents much better value for your money than over 2.5 goals at 5-4. As for next Wednesday's European final, remember that in the Premier League games between the "big four" tend to be close, low-scoring affairs with few corners but lots of bookings whereas in the Champions League they tend to be close, low-scoring affairs with few corners and few bookings. Referees may behave differently, players may behave differently. Whatever the reason, it happens. In Premier League games between the four clubs played during the past five seasons the average bookings index make-up (10 for each yellow card, 25 for each red) was 49. In the 12 all-English Champions League games played during those same five seasons the average bookings index make-up was only 24. For next Wednesday's Moscow showdown between Manchester United and Chelsea, a bet that might represent value is one on a low number of bookings.             Fill out your e-mail address to receive our newsletter! E-mail address:   First Name:   Last Name:	.