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| Dan Roebuck
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| Friday January 11, 2008
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Bookies fret over cracking form of
Britain's revitalised No1
Andy Murray's promising start to the
season has put bookmakers on edge ahead of the Australian Open as bettors look
to back the man they hope will give Britain its first male grand slam
tournament winner since 1936.
Murray's success in the Qatar Open last
weekend prompted every layer to cut the Scot to win in Melbourne and an early
defeat in the Kooyong Classic this week has not seen the odds pushed back out.
"Murray looked very impressive in Qatar and we're keeping a close eye on him as
we expect he will be well backed in Australia," said Ladbrokes' spokesman Robin
Hutchison. |
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Prior to Murray's Doha victory, the fourth
ATP Tour title of his career, the British No1 was available at 25-1 to win the
first slam of the season, and touched 33-1 with some firms in the autumn. Now
the best you will find is 16-1 (general), and that may change again after odds
compilers study the draw this morning. Last weekend's victory over Stanislas
Wawrinka ensured he will not face a top-four player until the quarter-finals at
Melbourne Park. And if he can avoid Roger Federer, Murray, who has been seeded
nine, looks a cracking each-way bet even if his odds shorten a couple of
points.
Much has been said about the change of surface at the Australian
Open, which has been switched from Rebound Ace to Plexicushion, more similar to
the US Open. Some players have suggested the new surface is slower after
practising and playing on it although it may speed up as the court wears. One
thing is for certain: previous form at Melbourne Park can be discarded, because
no one knows quite how it will play now.
The same cannot quite be said
for Federer. The top seed and world No1 drifted to 4-6 after he pulled out of
the Kooyong Classic this week with a stomach virus before he was backed in to
8-13 (Paddy Power and William Hill). It remains likely that he will be in top
condition for a tournament he has won three times, including the last two.
Federer is 7-1 (Sky Bet) to win the grand slam this season but once
again he will have to find a way to beat the man who has his number on clay,
Rafael Nadal, to take the title at Roland Garros. Nadal, seeded second in the
Australian Open, is third-favourite in the betting at 10-1 with Betfred and
Ladbrokes. Federer is the man to beat in Melbourne - but at short odds, on a
new surface and having not played this year, he is left out of our staking
plan.
Given his late 2007 form, when he won back-to-back Masters
Series titles, David Nalbandian would have been one to consider but a back
injury forced him out of the Kooyong Classic and odds of 12-1 (Ladbrokes and VC
Bet) look prohibitive. Novak Djokovic is seeded three but lies behind Federer
in the outright betting at 8-1 (Ladbrokes). The Serb would rate as a decent
punt if he reproduces the sort of form he showed to defeat Andy Roddick (25-1
generally in Australia), Nadal and Federer in successive rounds to win the
Masters Series Canada title last August.
Justine Henin is the 6-4
(Coral and Paddy Power) favourite to win the women's singles. It might be
argued she should be shorter in the betting given her current 27-match unbeaten
run and 2007's record cash haul of $5,429,586 (£2,775,000) and 10 tour
titles. She was in action in the final of the Medibank International against
Svetlana Kuznetsova in Sydney last night, so by now may have won her first
tournament of the season.
The Belgian missed last year's Australian
Open due to the break-up of her marriage but won it in 2004. And with the
defending champion, Serena Williams, the 11-2 (Blue Square ) second-favourite,
struggling with a knee injury, Henin is tipped to win a second successive grand
slam event after taking the US Open title in September. Kuznetsova, seeded two,
looks attractively priced at 22-1 (Paddy Power). The new surface should suit
her and she is the best each-way bet.
Selections
Justine
Henin to win the women's singles at 6-4 (Coral);
Andy Murray,
each-way, in the men's singles at 16-1 (general);
Svetlana
Kuznetsova, each-way, in the women's singles at 22-1 (PP)
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