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21/03/2008 No.38
rendspotting
 
   
 
 
Kevin Pullein
Friday March 21, 2008
 
 
 
The popular image of a relegation "six- pointer" is of a tight, nervy, niggly game in which there are few goals but many cards. In reality these games are not greatly different from many others - and that may be worth knowing during a weekend in which there will be much at stake at the bottom as well as the top of various tables.

Six of the bottom eight play each other in the Premier League, there are relegation scraps in the Championship and four of the bottom six play each other in League One. The important thing to realise about these fixtures is that, almost by definition, they involve teams of similar ability. That is not unusual, in the Premier League a third of all games feature teams separated by no more than four places.
 
     

The average number of goals scored in Premier and Football League games during the last 10 seasons was 2.55. In games between teams who finished in the bottom four - the most desperate relegation dogfights - the average number of goals scored was also 2.55. In other words, the goalscoring pattern in these fixtures was no different from what it was in many others, which is not what most people imagine. In betting markets on relegation tussles it is the possibility of a high score that is most likely to be underestimated.

And it is the possibility of a high number of cards that is most likely to be overestimated. The reputation these games have for being very dirty is undeserved. In most bookings markets 10 points are awarded for a yellow card and 25 for a red. The average make-up in the Premier League during the last 10 seasons was 36. In games between teams who finished in the bottom four it was a meagre 2½ points higher at 38.5.

For all the hype a relegation six-pointer is usually much the same as most other fixtures between teams of broadly similar ability. The betting markets do not always recognise this.


 
 
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