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| Never mind Christmas, shop early for the National |
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Picking the winner of
the Crabbie’s Grand National is hard enough in April, looking ahead to the
great race from as far away as December feels like picking the FA Cup winner on
the basis of the third-round draw. There is so much that can happen along the
way that making this any more than a guessing game is a challenge in
itself.
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 by stacey.cavanagh |
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That said, there is the
old saying that whilst form is temporary, class is always worth keeping your
eye on. There are one or two who are already beginning to look like the ante
post Grand National
odds might be worth dipping into - just as a Christmas present to
yourself you understand.
Mendip Express looked to be getting to
grips with the Aintree fences recently when
run into a
sporting second by the veteran Oscar Time in the Becher Chase. That run and
trainer Harry Fry’s upbeat assessment of his charge’s showing saw him
trimmed from 33s to around 25/1 in the markets, but the Seaborough handler was
notably coy as to the eight-year-old’s next move. Watch that
space.
Leading the market currently is another eight-year-old in
Shutthefrontdoor.
A win in
the Irish National suggests that a recent operation to open up a breathing
problem has done Jonjo O’Neill’s youngster the world of good.
It’s worth noting that O’Neill’s record in the national also
offers plenty of encouragement (a first, a second and a third in the past five
years) for an each-way interest at least. The sentiment that is bound to follow
on from such a popular pairing will see value all the harder to come by once
the market really picks up. On that basis, Shutthefrontdoor looks like one to
back sooner or not at all.
The statistics don’t favour the
eight-year-old brigade, however. Only two of the last 30 winners have been in
that age category. That suggests the know-how and the stamina that come with
age make for a sounder target.
That sort of logic inevitably brings last year’s winner into
the frame. Pineau de Re will be running as a 12-year-old on April
11th, although a notably quiet 2014 following last year’s success makes
any predictions difficult to substantiate. Certainly, trailing in 11th out of
12 in his only start - Cheltenham’s Ultima Business Solutions Handicap at
the start of December - did nothing to set the pulse racing. Throw in the
inevitable handicapper’s contribution and for all the form shown by
trainer Dr. Richard Newland’s yard, Pineau de Re has the look of a one-hit
wonder.
Many
Clouds’ win in the Hennessy Gold Cup was more eye catching, with
jockey Leighton Aspell - who was on board Pineau de Re last year - enjoying
another winning ride. Showing admirable stamina for a seven-year-old, Many
Clouds’ willingness to hold off Merry King and Houblon Des Obeaux points
to a horse with genuine class. That Hennessey success has attracted some
interest and it surely won’t be the last.
One more with credentials
worth considering is Rebecca
Curtis’s TeaforThree. Last year’s third place has
consistently proven to be one for the big occasion - not least in the Welsh
National and the National Hunt Chase. Impeccable jumping combining with a
favourable nod from the handicapper (down two pounds from his 2013 weight)
suggest that - barring accidents - Teaforthree won’t be far away come the
final shake up.
It says something about the potency of the National that
so many people are turning their attention towards an event for which the field
has not yet even been declared. But there is only one Grand National. Never
mind the Cup final, it is the sporting event of the spring, even if
it is just that little bit harder to call. |
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