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Each player rating is their expected performance for each round with respect to the Par of the course. Negative ratings indicate the player will shoot a sub-par round. A rating of (-1) means the most likely performance of that player is to shoot one shot below the average round score of the tournament and four below the average four-round total. So if the average total is near 278, we expect our player to shoot near 274.

Each player will naturally deviate from the expectation but a difference between players of 1 stroke, means 1 stroke per round and therfore 4 strokes over a normal length tournament. In this instance statistical simulation indicates a 2:1 advantage for the better player, excluding ties. This would be a reasonable advantage to bet at 10/11 (tie loses) or 17/20 (tie no bet).

The ratings for the players represent their predicted performance based on their past performance. Ratings for Majors fair worse than average because of the travel involved for most players and the unusual pressure. The best performance will be achieved in normal USPGA events.
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