|
|
 |
 |
|
| |
  Spread Betting - Sports |
|
|
|
|
| Spread Betting firms create different spread markets to suit
individual sports. We look at the main sports here but of course they will be
inventing ever more markets with the express purpose of making it difficult for
the customer to judge exactly what is value and what is not. |
|
Golf -
The most common spread bet on golf is a Multi Player Index,
in which the bookmaker awards something like 50 points to the winning golfer in
an event, 30 to the second placed golfer, 20 to the third and 10 to the fourth.
It might be called a Tournament Index. There can be any number of
players in this index but its usually a selection of 6-10 players.
The
player who finishes highest from the selected group will collect 50 points in
this case. The 2nd 30 and so on. Ties mean 2nd and 3rd points may be
shared.
Your job will be to judge the value of a player's quoted trading
price ( say Montgomerie 12-15 ) and decide whether its a Buy (at 15), Sell (at
12) or if its a No-trade. Most often quotes will induce you to think No-trade
and that is right most of the time if the spread setters has done their job
properly.
Since the initial success of the Tournament Index the
spread firms have decided to add the LeaderBoard Index.This
spread represents how a golfer will perform in relation to all other players in
the tournament and is not just a selection of players. The players within the
Leaderboard Index correspond with those leading the tournament, so further
players may be quoted as the tournament progresses. Points are allocated to the
placings once more but with more places and higher points. e.g 1st=60,
2nd=40 etc.
Finishing Positions allow the player to punt
whether a player will finish in a place higher or lower than the quote of say,
Faldo 35-37. A buy here means that you wish Faldo to finish in 38th
position or worse to make a profit (do badly). Conversely a sell means
you want him to do well.
Match Bets come in two sorts, 18
Hole and 72 Hole. They are different in scoring.
A bet placed on a 72 Hole
match is one that is multiplied by the number of strokes between the two
players at the end of the tournament (special rules apply if one or both miss
the cut). It is important when considering a bet to note the quote order.
e.g. Faldo/Norman 0-2 means the result is considered in terms of how
many strokes Faldo wins by. If he loses then its a negative number. If you
fancy Faldo you must buy at 2 and sell at 0 if you prefer
Norman.
On the other hand 18 Hole match bets are juiced up by awarding
10 points for a win plus 3 points per stroke. So winning by 2 points is a 16
point result. This time the quote might be Faldo/Norman 1-4 and so a buy
at 4 results in a win of (16 - 4) points or 12. |
|
Football -
Market makers have devised all sorts or
spurious markets concerned with football, most of which don't relate to the
actual result. Clearly once you leave the bounds of score and result related
indices anything is possible. We look at the main markets around
today.
Supremacy / Superiority
This is the simplest
football market of who scores the most goals. A Man Utd./Arsenal quote may go
1.1-1.3 which indicates Man U as favourite by 1.2 goals. If you think that on
average they are bigger favourites than 1.3 goals then buy at 1.3. If
you think this is a more even contest then you might want to sell at
1.1. If you buy at 1.3 and Man U win 4-3 then the make-up is 1
and you will have lost (1.3 - 1) x your bet.
Total Goals
This is simply a market on the total goals scored in match. So the
quote may look like Man U-Arsenal 2.6-2.8. This is not to be confused with the
above superiority. It means that if you think 3 or more goals is likely then
you may want to buy at 2.8. If you do and 6 goals are scored (the
make-up)then you win ( 6 - 2.8 ) x your bet.
Shirt numbers
This is the beginning of the more esoteric markets. It relates to
the shirt numbers of the goal scorers. This clearly takes more research to know
what are the numbers of the likely goal scorers and how often they score. This
is a more volatile market than those previously discussed.
A quote may
look like 30-32. This may seem high but if player 10 scores twice for one side
and player 8 twice for the other then the make-up is 36. Great care must
be taken here for sometimes a substitute may be wearing a "silly" number like
28. This is for serious gamblers.
Bookings
How many
cards will the referee show during a match? Again this looks random but it may
depend on a few very understandable factors which include the referee, the
players, the conditions and any special situations they may make the match a
"spicey" affair.
Most of the time points are scored as follows : 10
points for a yellow card (maximum one per player), 25 points for a red card. So
a market maker may quote 35-38 and you would win with a sell at 35 if
there were only one yellow and one red card.
All sorts of other markets
have been made like; Corners (simple), Time of 1st Goal (simple), Total Goal
Minutes (aggregate time of all goals scored in the game) and many others which
we won't look at. |
|
Horse Racing -
Horse Racing is easily the
biggeest sector in fixed odds bookmaking and bat swapping. There is also a
thriving spread world but its not quite as well suited to the spread format as
football or golf or cricket.
Individual Race Index / Points
index
This is a simple Multi Player Index using the official
placings to determine the make-up for each horse along the line of
1st=50pts, 2nd=30pts and so on. An odds-on favourite will be quoted arond 31-33
and its your job to judge the value offered.
Favourites
This is a Single Index market based solely on the horse that
starts the race as favourite. Points are awarded like this ; Winning favourite
= 25 points Second place favourite = 10 points Third place = 5 points.
Starting Prices (SPs) of Winning Horses
A more
esoteric Single Index market. This is based on the sum of the starting
prices of the winners at a whole race meeting. This can be blown up by a big
price winner so the market setter usually has a limit of 50-1 for a single
winner.
Winning Distances
This again is a Single
Index market. It is based on the total winning margins at a race meeting.
There are special rules to cover bizarre events like a huge distance winner.
Its nomally a max of 15 lengths for the flat and 30 for National Hunt. Standard
photo finish distance are translated into decimal parts of a length, such as;
Short Head = 0.1 of a length Head = 0.2 of a length Neck = 0.3 of a length Half
a length = 0.5 of a length 3/4 of a length = 0.75 of a length
.
Match Bets
A Heads-Up Index based on the
distance between two nominated horses in a race at the finish. Max
make-up is 12 lengths for the flat and 15 for jumps.
Of course
market makers are free to experiment with a multitude of markets based on any
aspect of the meeting, course, jockeys, trainers and horses. More will surface
and we will add if they become popular. |
|
Cricket -
Cricket is the sport with the most groups
of statistics to offer market makers a chance to construct indices. There are
far too many already in operation to consider. However the main markets are
Supremacy (runs against runs), Individual Batsman Series (or Match) Runs,
Individual Bowlers Series Wickets and the Innings Score for either or both
sides.
There are also Multi Player Indices when three or more
countries compete in 1-day matches and Heads-Up Indices in Test Series
when points for the make-up are awarded along the lines of victor gets
25 pts, a tie is 10 pts and the loser scores zero. This market is clearly an
in-running market, that is one that can be adjusted continually as the Test
Series progresses. |
|
| |
 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Main Menu
