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 ales of Team Carborundum
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 11th
June 2001 |
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| Jesse May |
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| Jesse May, multiple
author in the gambling field and sometimes dubded the "voice of poker", writes
a bi-weekly column. |
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Most people know Jesse as "the voice of poker" from his
colourful commentary in CH4's late Night Poker. Jesse is also the author of the
widely respected novel, Shut Up And
Deal, which looks deep into the poker playing life. Its the hard faced
21st Century Cincinnati Kid.
Jesse is
also the creator of The Gambler's Guide to
the World, an insiders look at the action and games around the
world. |
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Email :
Jesse
May
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It’s gotten weird. In the long running
and silent war between bookmakers and gamblers over Tiger Woods, where
bookmakers dare the public with ever more ridiculous prices and the public
defies the bookmakers by betting on Tiger Woods anyway, they’ve just
cranked it up a notch. Victor Chandler has taken the game into the fantasy
realm by installing Tiger Woods as an odds on favorite to win this weeks US
Open with a 125 runner field. Bet eleven to win ten, to be precise. And I say,
raise.
It’s an established fact that the shortest price a favorite
can be in a hundred runner golf tournament is about seven to one. And
that’s if the golfer is absolutely on fire with a huge following, and the
price is a sucker price anyway that sportsbooks are eager to lay because no one
can win one out of eight golf tournaments. Golf win markets, or outright
markets, have long been hugely profitable for sports books precisely because
they’re so hard to hit. The book has many sweep weeks where it
doesn’t pay out at all. They loved the golf markets until Tiger Woods came
along.
About two years ago, a high stakes poker player named Johnny
World made a bet where he was sure he had the nuts. He laid 4/1 on a standing
$5000 bet against Tiger Woods every time Tiger played in a golf tournament for
the following two years. When World made the bet, Tiger Woods was still five
and six to one against when he played. By the time the World settled the bet,
and not a good result for him, you were lucky to be able to get 2/1 on Tiger.
Johnny World has laid off of the golf a little since then.
A very
sensible approach would be to make bets on the golf that don’t involve
Tiger Woods at all. Like betting on Mickelson to choke or Lee Janzen to have a
twelve on one hole, or the quirky Duval to beat the field not including Woods
with a parlay on him cracking a smile. But all that stuff is just avoiding the
issue, isn’t it? I mean if you have the television on at all this weekend,
if you pick up a paper or have a conversation or tune in on Sunday, then
there’s only one possible issue of consequence. And that’s is Tiger
gonna win.
The venue is Southern Hills Golf Course in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Golfer Lee Westwood commented, “Being a US Open means you're going have to
drive well, be a good thinker and putt well.” How does Tiger Woods stack
up in those three areas? The best, the best, the best. He’s the best
driver, the best thinker, and the best putter. And he’s also the best
under pressure. He plays better under pressure. Much better. Like earlier this
year after he lost to Thomas Bjorn in Dubai and the press is all over him, they
are absolutely hounding him because he hasn’t won in six tournaments and
they’re screaming slump and just attacking him in every interview, and
Tiger goes out and wins three tournaments in a row, including the Masters and
the Player’s Championship.
When Michael Jordan was playing in his
last professional basketball game, the seventh game of the NBA finals between
Chicago and the Utah Jazz, were there any odds at which a gambler could have
taken Utah to win, to foil Michael Jordan in his bid for final glory?
Apparently there was, because I was on Utah that day. But not this time.
It’s a little late to say this has the earmarks of something big,
it’s tardy to say, “This guy could really be good.” It’s
happening now. I don’t know when it will end or where it will go from
here, but it’s happening now. And logic doesn’t even enter into the
equation.
My favorite description of a pool shot was from a one pocket
game with the cue ball wedged in on the lip of the corner pocket and the
narrator he said, “Throw physics out the window.” You take all your
stats, your charts, your record books and your past performances, just throw
them out the window.
There’s only one sort of person who can win
today betting on golf. It’s the blind fool. And I say follow the fools. If
it’s foolish to actually lay money on Tiger Woods to win this golf
tournament, if it’s crazy to say that he will do what no one has done
before, if it’s financially insane to put good money in his name against
the rest of the field to win the US Open, then I will die a lunatic. I will
spend the rest of my days raving into a trash can, because I am betting on
Tiger Woods. |
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Editor's note
US Open, Southern
Hills Country Club, Tulsa Okla. June 14-17, 2001
 Defending Champion : Tiger Woods
Winner's Prize :
$800,000
Winning Score : 272 (-12 ) Yards: 6,925
Winning
Margin : 15 strokes ( a record ) |
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