 Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the
Markets
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to
be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or
something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth
sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It
is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and
professional experiences.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in the
markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but
all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only
because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events
are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller
has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to
recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you. .
Paperback - 368 pages (3 May 2007)
 £6.54  $17.82
 Mathematics of Games and Gambling
by Edward W. Packel
The new edition of a favourite
which introduces and develops some of the important and beautiful elementary
mathematics needed for rational analysis of various gambling and game
activities. Most of the standard casino games (roulette, craps, blackjack,
keno), some social games (backgammon, poker, bridge) and various other
activities (state lotteries, horse racing) are treated in ways that bring out
their mathematical aspects. The mathematics developed ranges from the
predictable concepts of probability, expectation, and binomial coefficients to
some less well-known ideas of elementary game theory.
The second
edition includes new material on: Sports betting and the mathematics behind it
Game theory applied to bluffing in poker and related to the 'Texas Holdem
phenomenon' . The only formal mathematics background the reader needs is some
facility with school algebra.
Hardcover - 192 pages 2Rev Ed edition (Mar 2007)
£23.75 $44.00
 Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System
That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
by William Poundstone
This is an excellent book about the
discovery of the Kelly formula that is unknown outside gambling. This story has
three protagonists. Two of them were scientists working at Bell Labs: Claude
Shannon, a genius polymath who developed information theory; and John Kelly, a
maverick genius, who is directly responsible for the development of Kelly's
formula. The third one is a brilliant MIT mathematician, Ed Thorp.
As
the author states, Ed Thorp's genius consists in "...his continuous ability to
discover new market inefficiencies ... as old ones played out." Ed Thorp closed
this second fund in 2002. He is now independently exploring inefficiencies in
gambling.
Claude Shannon amassed large wealth by recording one of the
best investment records. His performance had little to do with Kelly's formula.
Between 1966 and 1986, his record beat even Warren Buffet (28% to 27%
respectively). Shannon strategy was similar to Buffet. Both their stock
portfolios were concentrated, and held for the long term. Shannon achieved his
record by holding mainly three stocks (Teledyne, Motorola, and HP). The
difference between the two was that Shannon invested in technology because he
understood it well, while Buffet did not.
John Kelly was a chain
smoking, gun collecting brilliant physicist. He died young at 41 of an
aneurysm. He worked closely with Shannon at Bell Labs. Besides being a
charismatic character the author does not write much about his life compared to
the other two.
Hardcover -
400 pages (September 14, 2005) £13.96 $17.82
 Against
the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
by Peter L. Bernstein
Bernstein has managed to take a subject
which at first sight seems intensely boring, and has made it fascinating.
Whether or not you have any interest in Risk, Statistics or Econimics, you owe
it to yourself to read this book. It is quite simply a "Ripping Yarn". Its
greatness lies in Bernstein's ability to tell the story in an accessible
manner, without dumbing down the essential facts. Let me say it again: Read
this book because it is a fascinating and well written story. The fact you will
know a lot more about Risk at the end of it is an incidental, but very welcome,
extra.
Paperback - 394
pages (9 October, 1998) expected price
£3.99 Buy
This Book [U$ citizens]
 Taking Chances by John Haigh
What are the odds against winning the Lottery,
making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make
judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their
understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice,
carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how
probability works. This text presents an entertaining and fascinating
exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It
describes and analyses a variety of situations where chance plays a role,
including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins,
and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to
make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in
your favour.
Paperback - 344
pages (May 2000) expected price
£7.19 Buy
This Book [U$ citizens]
 Getting the Best of It
by David
Sklansky
Getting the Best of It by
David Sklansky contains six sections discussing probability, poker, blackjack,
other casino games, sports betting, and general gambling concepts. This book
contains some of the most sophisticated gambling ideas that have ever been put
into print. Included is perhaps the best discussion of the basic mathematics of
gambling, yet it is written so that even the most non-mathematical of readers
can understand it. Many of the ideas discussed are those that the author
himself has successfully used during his career. Topics include expectation,
combinations, Baye's Theorem, the eight mistakes in poker, checking in the
dark, playing tight, The Key Card Concept, casinos and their mistakes, crapless
craps, betting sports, hedging and middling, knowing what's important, the Law
of Averages and other fallacies, and much more.
Paperback - 310 pages (May 1997) expected price £18.88 Buy
This Book [U$ citizens]
 Extra Stuff : Gambling Ramblings by Peter
Griffin
This book addresses many of
gambling's abstract concepts-proportional wagering, considerations for games
with variable pay-offs, the effects of rebates on losses-as well as more
mainstream subjects, such as the casino's treatment of hold percentages and
analyses of gambling systems. Although packed with mathematics, Griffin's easy
style accommodates most readers. Gamblers with all levels of experience will
have an enhanced understanding of the games.
This is a well-written book
about numbers, life, probability, humour, trading, and you-name-it, disguised
as a series of articles about gambling odds. If you are a gambler, you must
read this book.
Paperback - 176
pages (July 1991) expected price
£7.53 Buy
This Book [U$ citizens]
 The
Complete Idiot's Guide to Gambling Like a Pro
by Standord Wong,
Susan Spector
From one of the most
respected writers, Wong. Some problems with US based games but most ideas
transferable to the UK and internet casinos. This guide explains the basics of
the major games of chance (such as slot machines and roulette), numbers games
(lottery and bingo), table games (poker and black jack), and picking a winner
(sport betting and horse racing).
Paperback - 432 pages 2nd Ed (30 June, 1999)
expected price £12.99 Buy
This Book [U$ citizens] |
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