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Statistical Sports ModelsStatistical Sports Models in Excel by Andrew Mack

What does it take to create a winning sports betting model?Many people are interested in learning how to make smarter sports betting wagers. Not many of those same people are excited at the prospect of learning applied statistics to better inform their choices. You can't entirely blame them. Statistics has a well-earned reputation for being somewhat inaccessible by non-academics

If you want to be introduced to or enhance your ability to create and understand predictive analytic models in the sports wagering world, this book is for you. I consider myself a neophyte in statistics and have a basic working knowledge of excel. I have been searching for some time for a tutorial that I can use to understand how predictive analytics works and what I need to do to create a model to help determine what the real outcome of games should be and where I can exploit for profit lines that are incorrect. The author takes the time to break down complex ideas and theories into manageable and understandable steps. He provides examples and analysis of several different types of models along with their strengths and weaknesses. This book will give you the knowledge necessary to put together your own model, back test it, and make any necessary adjustments. If you are want to take your wagering knowledge to the next level and actually be able to look at a line and determine if you have an edge or not , rather than just tailing some tout or going by your "gut", read this book.

The examples and methods in the book are very straightforward and the author does a good job walking the reader through their advantages, disadvantages and some basic applications. The book is not going to tell you where value exists (nor should someone expect it to) rather it provides you with some tools that you can experiment with in order to find your own value


Paperback - Independently published 162 pages (9 Jul 2019)  £24.70
Kindle - Amazon Media EU 176 pages (9 Jul 2019)  £15.96 

 

 

SoccermaticsSoccermatics: Mathematical Adventures in the Beautiful Game Pro-Edition David Sumpter

Football - the most mathematical of sports. From shot statistics and league tables to the geometry of passing and managerial strategy, the modern game is filled with numbers, patterns and shapes. How do we make sense of them? The answer lies in the mathematical models applied in biology, physics and economics. Soccermatics brings football and mathematics together in a mind-bending synthesis, using numbers to help reveal the inner workings of the beautiful game.

Welcome to the world of mathematical modelling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the prism of football. No matter who you follow - from your local non-league side to the big boys of the Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A or the MLS - you'll be amazed at what mathematics has to teach us about the world's favourite sport.

Really interesting read and Sumpter manages to strike the balance between explaining his reasoning and not going into too much detail for people who haven't studied maths at a higher level. And if the maths does interest you there are further explanations and links in the appendix.


Paperback - 352 pages Bloomsbury Sigma; Reprint edition (9 Mar 2017)  £6.49
Kindle - 352 pages Bloomsbury Sigma; 1 edition (5 May 2016)  £6.17 

 

 

Thinking in BetsThinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.

Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it.

A book both entertaining and practical, based as it is on lessons learned from thousands of hours of decision making under pressure, as Annie Duke played high-stakes poker. At heart, it's about how we distinguish skill from luck in decisions, how we can improve the skill part of the balance,while understanding that luck will always play a part.


Hardcover - 288 pages Portfolio (7 Jan. 2019)  £15.24
Kindle - Portfolio (6 Feb. 2018)  £7.49 

 

 

Finding an Edge: Horse Racing Systems, Sports Betting, Betfair TipsFinding an Edge: Horse Racing Systems, Sports Betting, Betfair Tips by Ron Loftus

Take your betting to a more sophisticated level * A credible book of substance, containing invaluable information that is more relevant in today's betting world than any other book * Written by a full time Professional who has been a successful backer with the bookmakers for the last two decades and has proven to be just as successful on the betting exchanges since there inception, so this book is the real deal and should be taken seriously as it could turn out to be the best wager that you will ever make!

"The surprising thing about this book is that it does show you how to win, and what is even more surprising is that it is perfectly plausible." - A.N. Punter

• Convert Win odds into True Win prices. • Convert Win odds into True Place prices. • Identify profitable Each Way Bets. • On-Course Strategies (Track Betting) • Professional Staking & Betting Bank. • Beating the Betting Exchange Starting Price. • Backers Book, Trading, Hedging, Backing, Laying etc. • Plus Lots More


Paperback - 142 pages Ron Loftus (16 April 2012)  £14.41
Kindle - 146 pages Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.  £7.76 

 

 

Born to Punt: Steve Palmer's Betting YearBorn to Punt: Steve Palmer's Betting Year by Steve Palmer

Steve Palmer is that rare commodity, a journalist with a huge and very loyal following for his regular columns in the "Racing Post". His many thousands of fans enjoy his idiosyncratic and amusing interpretation of his own and others betting activities as well as life in general. Where others see pain and misery Steve inevitably sees a unique and amusing angle.

"Born to Punt" brings the best of Palmer's often hilarious anecdotes and stories together under one roof for the first time. These stories frequently involve the hideous misfortune and sometime joy which befalls the many of millions of punters who regularly bet each week.

Absolutely hilarious from the start! For anyone that is regularly involved in financial combat with the bookmakers, or simply intrigued into what makes thousands of people regularly frit away their finances on a variety of sports, Steve's account is frightfully recognisable. Chasing the dream! The lazy boy lifestyle led with his accomplice through various fast-food establishments adds the required light humour!


Hardcover - 288 pages (22 Feb 2011)  £3.29
Kindle - 304 pages Racing Post Books; 1 edition (24 Feb. 2012)   £8.39  

 

 

Beat the OddsIntelligent Gambling: 52 Brilliant Ideas for Beating the Odds by Tim Phillips

Gambling isn't a mug's game, but if you approach it like a mug, you'll lose. Have you been throwing good money after bad? You're not alone. For years the bookies' jealously guarded the tricks of the trade, their edge, because if you won, they lost: and odds-on, you lost. "Gambling is easy - but winning is tougher. It takes discipline, hard work and an agile mind, but when you win, believe me, there's no sweeter feeling. In this book you can find an insider's guide to how to bet, where to look for your edge, and how to turn that edge into the maximum profit. Gambling can be profitable, and it can be fun: read my tips on how to bet, and maybe you can have both at the same time." - Tim Phillips.

We've recently witnessed the biggest revolution in 200 years of legal gambling. The way we bet has been transformed: exchanges allow us to make a bet not with a bookmaker, but on the Internet with anyone who has money and an opinion. There are now many more ways and places to bet, many more games to bet on, and many more ways to find the 'edge' that may be your path to profit.


Paperback - 256 pages (24 Jun 2008)   £10.49    

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The Art of Bookmaking The Art of Bookmaking by Malcolm Boyle

Why do you try and beat the bookmaker, without knowing the basics of the business? The bookmaker offers punters prices based on his/her expertise, luring you to invest in a betting scenario from your amateur viewpoint. Yes, you have an opinion and might have even researched previous results and form guides from time to time, but unless you approach betting from a professional viewpoint, you will continue to lose money to the dreaded enemy.

"The Art of Bookmaking" explains how 'Turf Accountants' approach any potential betting scenario, and the (simple) mathematics that govern transactions. From a detailed look at 'percentages' through to frame betting in snooker, it shows you how to 'price up' any sporting event in the calendar. And it will show you how the Odds Compilers create prices for tournament betting (World Cup - US Open Golf Championship - Wimbledon etc), and inform you of the mistakes bookmakers have made down the years.


Hardcover - 256 pages (23 Mar 2006)   £6.59    

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Exotic Betting : How to Make the Multihorse, Multirace Bets that Win Racing's Biggest Payoffs by Steven Crist

Steven Crist has been playing the races and writing about them since a chance trip to Wonderland Greyhound Park in 1976 put a quick end to studying 18th-century English literature. He was the horse-racing columnist for The New York Times from 1981 through 1990; founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; a New York racetrack executive from 1994 to 1997; and in 1998 assembled an investment group that purchased Daily Racing Form, where he served as the chief executive until 2002 and remains as the chairman and publisher. Crist is the author of the books Offtrack, The Horse Traders, and Betting on Myself.

In Exotic Betting, the horseplayer takes a colorful wagering ride by learning to maximize profits by betting on a multitude of exotic wagers including the daily double, exacta, trifecta, quinella, superfecta, pick 3, 4, and 6.


Hardcover - 288 pages (May 25, 2006)   £43.02    

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Six Secrets of Successful Bettors: Winning Insights into Playing the Horses by Frank R. Scatoni, Peter Thomas Fornatale

Are there really people who consistently win at the racetrack? Yes there are, and in Six Secrets of Successful Bettors: Winning Insights into Playing the Horses, you'll finally meet them and learn their secrets. Frank R. Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale have put together a one-of-a-kind gambler's gem in their quest to find the small percentage of racetrack investors who beat the game. Do you have what it takes to join them? After interviewing more than two dozen professional players, the authors have identified the six secrets that all of these successful individuals have in common. Whether you're a casual weekend player or a serious fan contemplating turning pro, al of the practical elements for success are candidly revealed in this truly fascinating journey into the gambling habits of the world's greatest players.

Gamblers interviewed include blackjack expert Kevin Blackwood and poker champions Clonie Gowen, Howard Lederer and "Amarillo Slim" Preston.


Hardcover - 288 pages (April 1, 2005)   £12.61    

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Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong
The book addresses all aspects of betting. How to place bets, internet betting, book betting. Talks about shopping for the best lines. Addresses quarters, halfs, sides, totals, straight, future, teasers, money lines vs spreads. I would recommend this book to anyone that is interested in becoming a better sports better with a leaning to U.S Sports. The question and answer section after each chapter quizzes you on the material you just read. The appendixes and tables at the end of the book would satisfy any mathematical curiosity you may have that there is alot of work that goes into beating sports. Wong is respected in the professional community.

Paperback - 380 pages (September 1, 2001)   £10.08    

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Taking Chances by John Haigh
What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. This text presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour.

Paperback - 344 pages (May 2000)   £1.53  Buy This Book 


 EVERYMAN
 

Betting for a Living by Nick Mordin
From an author who devises and tests his own systems, this book describes how, during the winter of 1991/2, he applied his ideas at the racetrack and took over £1000 per month from bookmakers. It details the exact methods he used and explains the precise reasons behind every bet made.

Hardcover - 320 pages (16 November, 1992)  expected price £18.00   Buy This Book


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 Real Life NOVELS
 

Twelve Grand by Jonathan Rendall
"You probably have to be a gambler to really enjoy reading this".
What luck, we are! The book is all about indulgence, mainly on the betting front, although sex, booze and drugs are also high up on the inebriated agenda. The other caveats (do you need any more?) are that swearing and blasphemy feature regularly. But the most frustrating aspect of the book is that the author sometimes uses abbreviations for common words. It is not always obvious what he means, although you get the general gist. The main character is clearly in a state of (alcoholic) decline as he relates what he does with the £12,000 given him by a publishing company (coincidentally, Yellow Free Press, the book's publishers) to fritter away on gambling. He ends up waging a "silent war" against a lot of things in his life, some of them imaginary; a state of mind induced by his almost-perpetual intoxicated condition? Despite its obvious faults, it is a clever and sometimes humorous book that gets you thinking. It neatly alternates between the past and present, until the twain inevitably meet, and it is an interesting read on the whole, as long as you do not mind the bad language, etc. You (eventually) end up feeling sorry for the writer and applaud his raw honesty, although you sometimes feel intoxicated yourself reading the book, particularly the fuzzy ending.


Paperback - 224 pages (26 October, 2000)  expected price £5.60  Buy This Book

 
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