The Expected Goals Philosophy: A Game-Changing Way
of Analysing Football by James Tippett
The latest media reporting involves many new stats and
they have recently started using Expected Goals to offer more profound insight
in their broadcasts.
Expected Goals (otherwise known as xG) was
originally conjured up by a small corner of the online football analytics
community. It didnt take long for professional gamblers to begin using xG
to predict match outcomes. These bettors utilised the Expected Goals method to
turn over hundreds of millions of pounds from the bookmakers.
long, football clubs had caught on to the ground-breaking insight given by xG.
Brentford FC were leaders in this field, managing to assemble a
Play-Off-reaching squad on a shoe-string budget. In the last five years, the
small West London side have turned over more than £100m in transfer
revenue from their use of the Expected Goals method in player recruitment.
More recently, the Expected Goals method has been adopted by the media
as a form of insight. Fans are finally catching on to the pioneering means of
football analysis. Soon enough, anyone who doesnt understand the Expected
Goals philosophy will be left behind
If you are a beginner in football
analytics or not comfortable on expected goals, this is without a doubt the
most complete book you can read on the subject. If you are like me and work in
performance analysis, I assure you this book will only make you more
comfortable on the subject and ensure you are applying expected goals in the
proper manner. Overall, this book is an excellent choice for any level of
knowledge and interest on the subject and I cannot recommend it enough.
Paperback - Independently published 220 pages (8 Nov
Kindle - Amazon
Media EU 220 pages File Size: 3249 KB (8 Nov 2019)
|Football Hackers: The Science
and Art of a Data Revolution
by Christoph Biermann
A nicely written examination of the football data
revolution. Easy to fall in love with. A brilliant, thought provoking book that
details how much further football's data revolution can go. Genuine research
book to have if you are embarking on football betting though clearly there are
other approaches to evaluating bets on football.
Big football data is
here to stay with the use of advanced metircs and complex analysis. Some of
this is in play on the pitch with teams analysing their play and opponents play
with this new approach. More so the big teams of pros are using this whole data
set approach to find value bets.
Just finding value football bets is
only half the game though. The art and science of getting yours bets on
continuosly is not treated here so you will have to look else where for that.
Nevertheless this a book full of exciting ideas and inside views on modern
football gathered from inside interviews from the clubs. Obviously professional
betting teams keep their secrets to themselves but this is the best industry
view you can get hold of. If you are new to this approach this book will not
only change your understanding of the game but also stimulate you to think
differently in terms of dissecting individual elements of it and making sense
of it all together.
Paperback - 304 pages - Blink
Publishing (30 May 2019) £8.51
Kindle - 304 pages -
Blink Publishing (30 May 2019)
The Football Code: The Science of Predicting the Beautiful
Game by James Tippett
Tippett used to work for Matthew Benhams Smartodds, a company who make a
business out of getting new types of data for soccer and turning this data into
predictive models. Benham is well known in soccer circles as the owner of
Brentford in the second tier of English soccer and also recent Danish
champions, FC Midtjylland.
The Football Code teaches how a more
scientific approach can eradicate the damaging effects of chance, leaving a
clearer image of what is actually happening on the field of play. Only then can
managers sign better players. Only then can pundits offer better judgements.
Only then can fans compile better fantasy football teams.
The idea of
expectation is explored along with essential concepts such as regression to the
mean, the dangers inherent in drawing faulty conclusion from statistically
noisy, small sample sizes, the multitude of cognitive biases that often cloud
our decision making and the catastrophic effects of once in a
lifetime Black Swan events.
Many of the new guys in the rapid
growth of analytical based thinking about soccer come from a betting background
and this book is essential to understand the new industry and the skills needed
Predictive models for teams and individuals are often built
on the cornerstone of expected goals, a measure of the chance quality based on
location and type of attempt, which attempts to quantify a sides creative
and defensive process, rather than simply relying on the often luck ridden but
more obvious outcomes seen in the actual goals they score or allow.
youve wondered how data is collected and transformed into an expected
goals model, Tippett provides explanations based on his own experiences and
tracks the primacy currently enjoyed by expected goals and the deficiencies
inherent in some of its predecessors in the evolutionary chain of key
Paperback - Independently
published 268 pages (6 Sep 2017) £11.39
Kindle - Amazon
Media EU 262 pages File Size: 2795 KB (6 Sep 2017)
Adventures in the Beautiful Game Pro-Edition David Sumpter
Football - the most mathematical of
sports. From shot statistics and league tables to the geometry of passing and
managerial strategy, the modern game is filled with numbers, patterns and
shapes. How do we make sense of them? The answer lies in the mathematical
models applied in biology, physics and economics. Soccermatics brings football
and mathematics together in a mind-bending synthesis, using numbers to help
reveal the inner workings of the beautiful game.
Welcome to the world of
mathematical modelling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the
prism of football. No matter who you follow - from your local non-league side
to the big boys of the Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A or the MLS
- you'll be amazed at what mathematics has to teach us about the world's
Really interesting read and Sumpter manages to strike
the balance between explaining his reasoning and not going into too much detail
for people who haven't studied maths at a higher level. And if the maths does
interest you there are further explanations and links in the
Paperback - 352 pages Bloomsbury Sigma; Reprint
edition (9 Mar. 2017) £7.75
Kindle - 352 pages
Bloomsbury Sigma; 1 edition (5 May 2016) £6.17
Born to Punt: Steve Palmer's Betting Year by Steve Palmer
Steve Palmer is that rare
commodity, a journalist with a huge and very loyal following for his regular
columns in the "Racing Post". His many thousands of fans enjoy his
idiosyncratic and amusing interpretation of his own and others betting
activities as well as life in general. Where others see pain and misery Steve
inevitably sees a unique and amusing angle.
"Born to Punt" brings the
best of Palmer's often hilarious anecdotes and stories together under one roof
for the first time. These stories frequently involve the hideous misfortune and
sometime joy which befalls the many of millions of punters who regularly bet
Absolutely hilarious from the start! For anyone that is
regularly involved in financial combat with the bookmakers, or simply intrigued
into what makes thousands of people regularly frit away their finances on a
variety of sports, Steve's account is frightfully recognisable. Chasing the
dream! The lazy boy lifestyle led with his accomplice through various fast-food
establishments adds the required light humour!
- 288 pages (22 Feb 2011)
The Art of
Bookmaking by Malcolm Boyle
Why do you try and beat the bookmaker, without knowing the basics of
the business? The bookmaker offers punters prices based on his/her expertise,
luring you to invest in a betting scenario from your amateur viewpoint. Yes,
you have an opinion and might have even researched previous results and form
guides from time to time, but unless you approach betting from a professional
viewpoint, you will continue to lose money to the dreaded enemy.
Art of Bookmaking" explains how 'Turf Accountants' approach any potential
betting scenario, and the (simple) mathematics that govern transactions. From a
detailed look at 'percentages' through to frame betting in snooker, it shows
you how to 'price up' any sporting event in the calendar. And it will show you
how the Odds Compilers create prices for tournament betting (World Cup - US
Open Golf Championship - Wimbledon etc), and inform you of the mistakes
bookmakers have made down the years.
Hardcover - 256
pages (23 Mar 2006)