Main Menu
Understand Probability
Bet Types
    Spread Bet
Horse Racing
Football Bets
Sports Betting
Free Bets
Spread Bet
  | Home   | Index   | Info   | This Week   | Poker   | News   | Email
Understand probability  
Gamblers who have a good grasp of mathematical probabilities tend to fare better than those who don’t.

But don’t worry; this isn’t necessarily about deep mathematical complex understanding. That’s because with all forms of gambling on sports there are huge amounts of qualitative data to consider. This is what most of us love about it.

Nevertheless, a basic understanding of probabilities and the acceptance of losses as an inevitable part of the gambling process are essential requirements that many gamblers simply don’t possess.

So let’s say, for example, that you study all you can about a race using as much 
online horse racing form as you can glean. You come up with a runner in a six horse handicap that you deem has as good a chance as any other.

In other words, you are by no means certain of the horse’s victory, but you think the handicapper has things about right. Ergo, your selection has a one in six chance of winning - according to your analysis.

Next, you see on the exchanges that your horse is exactly 5-1. So do you back it? The answer is no you don’t because although 5-1 odds reflect accurately a one in six chance of winning, you have to take account of the exchange’s five per cent commission. In short, the horse is worth backing at 5.36-1 or better.

Of course, the trick isn’t to sweat this sort of mathematical detail too much, but to find the odds at any sport that you deem to be anomalously high. You can afford to cherry-pick. So staying with our example, if you could find a hose in this race you thought has as good a chance as any which happened to be, say, 9-1, then back it. Follow your own judgement and accept that you’ll still lose most bets. But the winners would more than make up for the losses as long as your initial analysis is sound..

Of course here at The Good Gambling Guide we promote sensible, safe and secure gambling at all times. Knowing your limits and sticking to them is important and every site we mention will have details on their pages of help in your location should you need guidance or help. Should you be playing across borders, which is perfectly okay, a little search on the internet will give local contacts if you feel you need them.

Home | Index | Information | Links | Advice | Diary | This Week | Columns | News | Email
Lotteries | Casino Gambling | Games | Betting | Equipment | Film Review | Book Review | Glossary

This document maintained by GGGwebmaster.
Material Copyright © 2000 - 2015