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In Running Sports Betting |
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| Sports betting is an enormous
business around the world. Bookmakers and other betting styles, like spread
betting and exchange betting, are offering markets on more sports all time and
new individual and very specific markets within a sport, or even game. Liquid
markets for pre-event odds generally tend to be accurate, meaning all the
information is feeding into the prices which creates an accurate betting
market, and therefore in general no value to the smart punter. |
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Not only do the market forces
push prices to where they should be but odds compilers do a lot of research to
set early prices and they have a lot of information and experience at hand.
This does not mean they can not be beaten, it just means that you have to go
that extra mile of analysis to find the value on offer across all markets.
However one place that is not so well known by odds setters and even exchange
markets is in running sports
betting.
What is In Running Sports Betting?
For
illustration purposes there is no better sport than golf. Golf tournaments are
four round events, a round per day most of the time. After each round new
prices will appear for the winner and if you bet then, then you have bet whilst
the tournament is running.
But more than ever before all the major
sports are being bet in running. Football for the next player or side to score,
tennis the winner of the next game or set, NFL the line will move after every
score or stopage, which is all the time. And then the same type of bets for
many other sports like cricket, snooker, rugby and darts.
Know your
Sport
So this is not easy but you have to know your sport, which means
many hours watching every week if you can and get a handle on the prices and
the reasons behind the prices. Try pricing up matches or events before the
start and try to get close to the market with your reasons clearly understood.
This puts you in command of the information as the event
progresses.
Take Golf as an example. Pros on the main tour can shoot
great scores like any of the big six, currently that is Day, Mcllroy, Johnson,
Stenson, Spieth and Matsuyama. Coming into the final round of a tournament
there are more factors to consider than just the bare form of the players.
Closing out a golf event is notoriously hard and its a special type of player
who can do it consistently. The choke factor is big here and allowing for this
is an art as well as a science. Final round odds and in-play of the final day
odds bounce around wildly and advantage can be had with greater than true odds
available.
Over Reaction
The key factor in getting better than
true odds is the over stepping by the market, odds setters and exchange markets
the like. On the exchanges prices swing too far as punters look to follow a
price down so that they don't miss a bet. You can back against the movement or
wait for the price to bounce back if you want to follow it, because it will
bounce back.
Cricket scores are a good example. When a player is out the
betting on the total run score drops by more than it should all the time and
bounces back to a true figure after a minute or so. This gives you time to back
against the trend in lower run total and then take the opposite position for a
no-lose lock position.
Odds compilers make the same mistakes but not
without knowing what they are doing. The bookmakers want to take short priced
bets at the wrong odds and know that the average punter will react out of
instinct more than not and chase a low price, if for instance a goal has been
scored in a football match. Your job as an in running player is to be able to
assess what the price should be and take anything that you think is a big
mistake.
Big mistake is in excess of 20%. If you are out in your
judgement by say 10% you will still be on the right side of a
bet.
Horse Racing
Betting in running on horse racing is a
separate discipline to all other sdue to the short time that each race takes
and the fact you are only going to get a bet on with one of the exchanges. You
need to be a racinf fan and have watched hundreds if not thousands of races.
Its easier to start with National Hunt races as these take longer and unfold in
a time frame that gives you a chance to make a decision.
Check your
data feed
When betting in running you must know exactly how far behind
the live event you are with your data feed, that is internet, TV or otherwise.
Even live pictures will have a built in delay to them. If its more than 30
seconds then you probably need to change the way you are seeing/listening to
the action.
Horse racing is a special case here as many of the live TV
pictures are behind too much so that spotters at the track will have a big edge
oer you. Radio on the other hand appears to be just a couple of seconds behind
and the dedicated racing radio you can get online is likely the best. Betfair,
William Hill and Corals all have free radio commentary.
Photo
finishes
Once again racing provides opportunities. Many a TV pundit
rates the market on the exchanges as to being a reliable guide to the result of
photo finishes. But they can be way out of line and the TV shots are never very
helpful. Listen to the radio for these as the commentators are very up close to
the finish line and big overturns in photo finish betting occur. I have even
see TV race commentators confuse similar colours and declare the wrong horse to
be in the photo. These opportunities are rare but result in big price
wins.
Losing
You will make bets that lose. This is your chance
to analyse your bet and check your judgement. If you would have placed the bet
having had extra time to study then the bet was good. If not its time to
re-analyse what you doing. You must also be able to cope with losing without
emotionally affecting your next bet. If you can't then this business is not for
you.
Log your bets
This sounds obvious but the only way to
make real analysis of how well you are doing over a period of time is to keep a
spreadsheet going with every bet and the result. Several headers for different
types of bet, time into the event, etc. will show you things that you can't see
any other way. 
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