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Trends and Stats That Will Help You to Back the
Open Championship 2021 Winner
Of all golf’s majors, it is perhaps the Open Championship that is the hardest to win.

The Masters, while playing at the perennially difficult Augusta National, at least affords some familiarity in being played at the same venue year in, year out. The PGA Championship is typically set up as the easiest of the four big ones, while the U.S. Open – primed by the USGA to be the hardest major – is still played in familiar conditions Stateside.

But the Open Championship…well, few in the field will have experienced a hacking sea breeze in the UK or Ireland, nor are deep pot bunkers and ultra-fast fairways and greens all that common on the PGA TOUR. The consequence is that the Open Championship odds tend to be amongst the widest golf betting markets each year, and in 2021 there are 25 players price at 50/1 or under – including the favourite Jon Rahm, who at the time of writing is an 11/1 shot.

Shane Lowry will finally get a chance to defend the title he won in 2019, and Royal St George’s in Sandwich, Kent will provide the perfect venue for a fantastic four days of golf – the course is a fourteen-time host of the Open Championship, with its first coming way back in 1879.

There are plenty of punters who make a handy ROI each year by betting each way on the golf, with some firms paying as many as ten places on the majors. But actually picking the winner of The Open? That is somewhat tougher. However, there are some trends and patterns that could help to identify the winner of the Open Championship in 2021.

No American Dream

At the time of writing, eight of the world’s top ten golfers – according to the official rankings – are from America. That trend can be extrapolated to the top 20, 50 or even 100 if you wish, and the point is that Americans tend to dominate the majors as a result.

But the Open Championship? Not so much. In fact, of the last ten editions of the tournament, five have been won by Europeans and two by South Africans. Why? It’s probably due to the unique conditions of Links golf courses and the kinds of shots they force the players to hit – these are rare amongst the hustle and bustle of the PGA TOUR.

So the most pertinent of the Open Championship tips is not to invest too heavily in American players.

Not the Weakest Link

When Darren Clarke won The Open in 2011 – ironically at Royal St George’s – he started an intriguing trend.
Every champion up to and including the Irishman had posted a top-10 in the Open Championship before their victory – the anomaly, Lowry in 2019, had a twelfth-place finish to his name. That shows a mastery not only of this event but also of Links golf – as mentioned, a crucial factor. Make sure any players you back have that Open pedigree under their belt.

The Win’s the Thing

In five of the last seven years, the Open champion had won one of their prior outings worldwide. And so that, allied with the knowledge that we’re looking for a player with previous experience on the Links, opens the door ajar somewhat.

Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm (T11), Patrick Cantlay (T12), Phil Mickelson and even Stewart Cink fit the bill as a recent tour event winner with a top ten (or near enough) on a Links golf course.

So, there are some interesting players to watch in the build-up to the 2021 edition of the Open Championship, which will surely be a fascinating tournament to watch and bet on.

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