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Horse Racing:
A Guide to Studying
Form and Picking a Winner |
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| A 5 step guide to picking out a champion horse. |
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Horse Racing is an incredibly exciting sport to bet on. In fact, millions of people do so every year.
It's an unpredictable sport, where it is not common for a rookie horse or rider to appear out of nowhere and steal a big race.
While this can make the
sport really exciting to watch, it makes winning money consistently on the sport very tricky. However, there are things you can do to increase your chance of
picking a winner.
Below, you will find a 5 step guide to studying form and picking out a champion horse.
Before you start researching a horse
or betting on horses, you need to pick one.
You should not be drawn in by the
horses who have been given long odds, as you are quite likely to lose money on them. Instead, go for a horse with shorter odds. They don't have to be the
favourite - but we recommend staying within the bookies' top 3.
#1 - Look at the horse's
form
Step 1 will be to research and examine the horse's form.
Note, if the horse is a rookie then this is something you can't do.
However, you may not want to be betting on a rookie as there is too much of a risk they might lose. Or panic because of the big occasion.
You should be
researching three things when looking at a horse's form:
- How they have performed in their last 5-10 races
- How they have performed in this style of the race before
- How they have performed in this exact race before
The first piece of research will give you an idea of if the horse has got better throughout the
season, if they have started to decline, or if they have been steady all season.
This second piece of information will help you to understand if the
horse is in form and if they are capable of winning a race in this style.
Finally, having not done well in the exact race in the past doesn't matter if
they have had a good season, or have improved on previous seasons.
#2 - Look at the rider's
form
The horse's form isn't the only thing you should be looking into. You should also look into their rider and their trainer (see next
section).
This part of the research can be a little tricky because a great rider doesn't necessarily mean a win if the horse isn't up to it. We have
seen many horses win multiple races with different riders. However, there aren't many jockeys who have won multiple big races on different horses.
However, jockeys like AP MaCcoy have shown us that this is possible. When looking at a jockey's form, you should look at the same three statistics:
- How they have performed in their last 5-10 races
- How they have performed in this style of the race before
- How they have performed in this exact race before
#3 - Look at the trainer's history
A
jockey can make a big difference to a horse's performance, but perhaps the person who has the biggest impact on a horse is their trainer.
If a horse
has come from a famous stable, then there is a good chance that it will do well. It is a good idea to get to know all the big stables and their head trainers,
this will help you to pick out winners with ease.
Things you should know about the trainer of your horse:
- Who the trainer trained with
- How well has their stable performed in general
- How well has their stable performed in this style of race
- How well has their stable performed in this exact race
- How well are the other horses from this stable performing right now
Big trainers and stables are selective about which horses they enter into races. If they have put a
horse and jockey forward, then it is because they think the pair will have a really good chance of winning.
Here are some trainers that you should be
looking out for:
- Bob Baffert
- Tod Pletcher
- Steve Asmussen
- Chad Brown
- Donald McCain Jr - his family stable has produced 5 grand national winners
- Mrs. D Foster
#4 - Look at the history of the race
It
can be a really good idea to look into the history of the race. You should know the following things about the race:
- How often has it been won by
The favourite, Second favourite,
Outsider or Rookie
- What kind of horses consistently win this race
- What stables are successful at this race
- Who are the 5 previous winners of this race
- The age of previous winners and the average winner's age
Knowing what the horses that regularly win the race look like can be incredibly useful. If horses
with short strides have won the race 4 times out of the last 5 then you should be looking to bet on a horse with shorter strides.
The same goes for the
age of the previous winners. If older horses win this race more often, then you want to avoid betting on a three year old horse.
#5 - Look at the other favourites for the race
By the time you have reached this point, your research is either going
to suggest that your horse is likely to win this race, or that they aren't.
If they don't look likely to win, you should do some research into the
other horses taking part in the race. You may find another horse looks more likely to be a winner than your original pick.
It is also always worth
doing research into the other favourites for the race. If the research makes it look more likely that they will win, then you may want to put your money on
them.
It can seem boring to bet on the favourite. The odds are shorter and the prize money will be smaller. But it is better to bet on a favourite and
win a small amount of money than it is to bet on the long odds and lose it all. |
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