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| Examining the Oddities in
Football's Outright Odds |
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The 2020/21 season was
always going to produce bizarre results due to the unprecedented climate, but
few would have expected the standings look as they do at the time of writing.
In the midst of the winter schedule, Liverpool, Manchester City,
Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, nor Paris Saint-Germain topped the
leagues that they’ve dominated for years.
As such, the odds in the
outright markets are in flux. Bookies and bettors appear torn between trusting
that the standings will iron themselves out to a semblance of normality and
backing the underdogs to take their chances of rare glory this season.
Here, we’re examining the
football odds from
Betfair, why they underrate the clubs standing as the league leaders, and
if those underdogs can hold their own for the rest of the
campaign.
Atlético
Madrid, 6/4 to win La Liga |
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| Source:
Pixabay |
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At the time of writing,
Atlético Madrid were on the same points and goal difference as league
leaders Real Sociedad (+17 goal difference, 16 points), but with two games in
hand. Furthermore, Real Madrid trailed El Atleti by three points, and their
local rivals had a game in hand on the reigning champions.
If there was
ever the perfect time for a team to usurp the pecking order of the modern La
Liga, it’s now. Atlético Madrid have had a quality side for many
years, but the insurmountable spending power of Los Blancos and Barça
due to heavily skewed TV deals has long reserved the top two spots.
This season, Barcelona are in turmoil with Lionel Messi set to depart
in the summer, and Real Madrid have been inconsistent. In the odds, however,
Atlético’s odds of 6/4 to triumph from their advantageous position
are bookended by Real at 11/8 and Barcelona at 7/2.
The defensive nuance
and grit of the Diego Simeone-led side should grant them consistency throughout
the season. Plus, the fact that their loss in
the match
for Madrid marked their first defeat of the season shows that they can
still stack enough points against ‘the rest’ to move to claim La
Liga.
Sporting CP, 7/2 to
win Liga NOS |
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| Source:
Unsplash |
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It may come as a
surprise to see this, but Sporting CP haven’t won Liga NOS since 2002,
with every edition since seeing FC Porto and SL Benfica dynasties trade
dominance. In fact, last season, Sporting snapped their three-season streak of
placing third, tumbling to fourth on goal difference.
There’s a
different aura around the José Alvalade Stadium this season, though.
Through the first nine games, Sporting went undefeated with seven wins while
Benfica and Porto stumbled twice. They’ve also been scoring for fun,
putting up a joint-league-leading 21 goals for while only conceding seven.
Shrewd new signings have been pivotal to this success, with former
Atlético goalie Antonio Adán, centre-back Zouhair Feddal, winger
Nuno Santos,
on-loan Pedro Porro, and central midfielder Pedro
Gonçalves performing exceptionally well. It’s these players and the
newest batch of emerging wonderkids who are causing Sporting to
surge.
Having gone so long without a title, the bookies are naturally
hesitant to back the Leões, putting the 4/6 Benfica and 13/5 FC Porto
ahead in the odds. However, both of these teams have heavyweights to contend
with in the UEFA competitions, perhaps allowing the focused Sporting to
continue to grow their lead.
Of course, there’s a lot of football
left to be played, but both Atlético Madrid and Sporting CP look to be
seizing their rare opportunities at claiming some silverware this
season. |
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