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Jesse May in
Las Vegas |
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Preview [ T-4 ]
The same question goes through
every gambler’s mind about three days before an impending trip to Las
Vegas. If I go to the airport right now, one wonders, would they let me on an
early plane? It seems worth a shot. Because the closer one gets to going to Las
Vegas the more worthless other activities become, until all that’s left is
that can’t sit down can’t stand up ants in your pants excitement,
where you check and recheck your tickets, your reservations, and your bankroll
while idly scouring books, magazines and the internet for shreds of
information. That’s what I usually do before I go to Las Vegas, twice a
year since the age of sixteen, half a dozen stints of five weeks or more, and a
six month stretch when I turned twenty-one.
Preparing for the World
Series of Poker magnifies Vegas anticipation times twelve, because it is
exactly what Benny Binion intended when he set out over thirty years ago to
host a yearly tournament in Las Vegas. In the greatest gambling city in the
world, Binion wanted a gathering of the greatest gamblers. Sure, there’s a
plethora of billionaire businessmen, politicians and hedge fund investors who
have never set foot in the hallowed halls of Binion’s Horseshoe, but that
fault is their own. Gamblers can prove themselves at the poker table, and when
over seven hundred players tee off for this year’s World Series of Poker
$10,000 buy-in main event, it will be the largest poker tournament in the
history of the world. And a whole lot of people who reckon themselves good
decision makers, who think that no amount of pressure can take away their
courage and that they can think clearly and aggressively in the chasms of hell,
they’ll all be giving it a whirl. The World Series of Poker is not for the
faint of heart. Not at all.
Betting on the World Series of Poker has
been possible since Irishmen Terry Rogers began to book the event in 1981, but
this year the markets have ratcheted a sharp turn upwards. Because the advent
of exchange betting has made overround books a thing of the past, and between
www.BETDAQ.co.uk and
www.Betfair.com prices are so
competitive as to be peppered with value, and the persistent investor will have
already found arbitration opportunities galore. Bettors look at past World
Series of Poker results and say anybody can win, but in my mind that’s
just not true. Anybody can get second, and anyone can get sixth, but to win the
World Series of Poker it takes a true nutcase, and most of the entrants
aren’t nearly that crazy. They may be good, but they’re not nearly
that crazy. When it comes to betting on the World Series of Poker, I want to be
riding on two types of people. The unknowns, and the nutcases. Sane fellows
need not apply.
A look back at recent winners could confirm my theory.
Robert Varkonyi made a name for himself last year by raising Phil Hellmuth
all-in with the queen-ten of clubs. “You nutcase!” said Phil before
hitting the rail. Those, by the way, were the exact words that Mike Alsadi used
on Phil Hellmuth after Hellmuth made an over the top raise of Alsadi’s two
tens with an ace-ten only in 1989, when a young brash nutcase from Wisconsin
ended Johnny Chan’s reign. Carlos Mortensen in 2001, a crazier Spaniard
never may be, as he cackled with glee while bluffing with gusto. And Chris
Ferguson, Jesus, in AD 2000, was asked why he called with an ace and a nine,
for all the money when he knew he was beat. One of the smartest people in
poker, a seventh decimal kind of game theory individual, will always have
trouble putting into words what he knew to be true. To win the World Series of
Poker, he had to be a nutcase. Noel Furlong, enough said, he made Huck Seed
look like an Oxford tie and showed the reason why Irishmen tend to excel at the
main event. Because in no limit Hold’em, it’s no use waiting for
cards. You must make do with what you have, and everyone else must think
you’re crazy. One of the most exciting final table stories I’ve heard
involved Dan Harrington in 1996. Harrington was a Boston lawyer before he
turned to poker, and his style of play was steady like the ocean and everyone
knew it. And at the final table of the 1996 World Series of Poker, early on,
Harrington played a hand, a jack-four I believe, and he played it so strange
and he played it so crazy that the entire table gasped in horror when he turned
it over to rake the pot. Lawyer becomes nutcase, wins the World Series of
Poker.
In my mind some people just don’t have it in them. When it
gets to Day 5 they’ll be counting their money, looking for deals and
praying for second. And that’s the best they’ll ever do. But some
folks are more interested in the glory than the money. They would be the
nutcases, and I definitely want to be betting on them. See you in Vegas.
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