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 he Guardian G2 Poker Column |
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| Victoria
Coren |
| Monday Nov 13th, 2006
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A
study from the University of Otago, New Zealand, reveals that snap decisions
are more accurate than rational judgments. This conclusion was reached after a
series of tests in which volunteers were asked to predict basketball results,
half making impulsive guesses and the rest given time and statistics to help
their choice.
Can this research help us in poker? When trying to get
better at the game, we are supposed to hone our analytical skills, learning to
track back through the betting to work out our opponents' likely hands. Let's
say you've got AK. You raise before the flop and get one caller. The flop comes
6-7-J with two hearts, and you make a "continuation bet". Your opponent calls.
The turn card is a blank. Your opponent calls another bet. The river is a
blank. You check. Your opponent goes all in. |
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Now, what is this guy supposed to have? If he
flopped a pair, or even two pair, he would surely raise to protect his hand
against the straight and flush draws. Even with a set, he should raise on the
turn. Why all this passivity, before an oversized river bet? The most likely
option is that he flopped a draw, called twice in a failed attempt to hit it,
and is now forced to bet as his only way of winning. Following this careful
analysis, you could make a brilliant call. You might also find that the idiot
has a pair of sevens.
So, are you better off following the Otago study
and acting purely on impulse? I say not. There should be instinct in your game,
but analysis is a long-term profitable strategy. Even if you're sometimes
wrong. This is, like so many card-table mottoes, equally true of life itself.
Examining the study more closely, beyond the headline-grabbing
"result", I see that the impulse volunteers predicted 70% of outcomes
correctly. The calculated judgers were 65% correct. A 5% variation, eh? There
is a simpler poker lesson to be learned from this: be careful, and sceptical.
There is a lot of bullshit out there.
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