Given Chelsea's indifferent
form recently, it seems strange that they remain joint favourites to win the FA
Cup ahead of this weekend's fourth round. Weight of money could have something
to do with it, with Extrabet reporting a wager of £5,000 at 7–2 on
Chelsea. But the bookmakers still appear to be erring on the side of caution
when quoting a general 4–1 on Chelsea repeating their 2007 triumph.
Manchester United are also freely available at 4–1, with Arsenal and
Liverpool both 6–1.
It is surprising that United are not clear
favourites, especially as tomorrow's opponents, Tottenham, are likely to send a
"mishmash" of a side to Old Trafford, according to their manager, Harry
Redknapp. Layers are seriously worried that United will win the quadruple after
they reached the Carling Cup final this week. Bet365 offered 300–1 in
August that United will win four trophies this season – that is now
40–1.
One of the Premier League's big four is
expected to win the FA Cup, with Paddy Power quoting 4–9 on one doing so
and 13–8 on any other team lifting the trophy. This column's selection
prior to the third round, Aston Villa, are now best at 11–1 (Blue Square
and Coral) from 18–1, while Tottenham are 25–1 (general),
Fulham 28–1 (general), West Ham 28–1 (Ladbrokes), Everton 33–1
(Sky Bet), Portsmouth 33–1 (general) and 40–1 bar. Villa, who play
Doncaster away tomorrow, still look overpriced at 11–1, and those without
an interest in the outright market could do worse than back Villa.
Those looking for a quicker return on their money might be more
interested in the standout punts this weekend. There has been money for
Hartlepool to defeat West Ham (Extrabet report a £3,000 wager at
7–2) but a more likely place for an upset could be the KC Stadium, where
Hull City entertain Millwall.
Phil Brown played an understrength team
in both third-round games against Newcastle and Hull were fortunate to win the
replay. With wholesale changes expected to the line-up that lost 3-1 to Arsenal
in the league last time out, Millwall, fourth in League One and with just one
defeat in their past 13 matches, could take advantage. They are 11–2
(general) to win, with Hull 8–13 (general) and the draw 14–5 (William
Hill).'
There will be plenty of takers of the 11–2 on an away win
but there are two better options. First, a lay of Hull at 1.68 (4–6) on
Betfair, meaning the draw as well as a Millwall win is in your favour, and
second, a sell of Hull's supremacy at 1.1 with Sporting Index, which means you
will still return a profit if the Tigers win 1–0.
Half the battle
for punters when it comes to the FA Cup is trying to predict which leading
teams are taking it as seriously as the Premier League. Those managers, like
Brown and Redknapp, who have made it known they won't be fielding their best
XI, at least give bettors the information needed to beat the bookmakers.
Unlike the Hull and Spurs managers, Arsène Wenger has suggested
the team he chooses to face Cardiff this Sunday will not be too dissimilar to
one he would use for a Premier League game. Given the proximity to Arsenal's
tough league clash away at Everton next Wednesday though, Wenger could rotate
his squad slightly and it would be no surprise to see Nicklas Bendtner,
scoring substitute in both Arsenal's last two games, start at Ninian Park. If
he does, the Dane is attractively priced at 13–8 (Stan James) to score at
any time.
Rafael Benítez could rest players in Liverpool's
Merseyside derby against Everton on Sunday but there were few chances at
Anfield when the two met in the league on Monday night and this tie could
easily be a repeat of that draw. Extrabet and Paddy Power offer 5–2 on a
stalemate.
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