Main Menu
No.1 2 3 4
Play now at the William Hill Casino
  | Home   | Index   | Info   | This Week   | Poker   | News   | Email
09/11/2007 No.6
rendspotting Football
Kevin Pullein
Friday November 9, 2007

The first round of the FA Cup is the highest scoring in the competition proper because it brings together more teams with disparate abilities than any other stage. The average number of goals scored in first-round ties over the past 15 seasons was 3.0. The goals per game figure goes down as the competition continues - to 2.8 in round two, 2.7 in rounds three and four, 2.5 in rounds five and six, 2.1 in the semi-finals and 2.0 in the final.

The number of games producing more than 2.5 goals - the most common betting line - also fell. The proportion of first-round ties producing three or more goals was more than twice the proportion of final ties doing so - 56% compared to 27%.

The single biggest influence on the number of goals scored in a football match is the difference in ability between the two teams. This is unsurprising: Manchester United's games generally yield more goals when they are playing teams from near the bottom of the Premier League.

Those betting would do well to remember this trend in the FA Cup as the first round produces more ties between teams from widely separated rungs on the English football ladder than even the third round. The more lopsided a first-round tie, the more goals are likely to be scored.

The statistics show that, when League One teams played League Two teams, the average number of goals scored was 2.7. When League Two teams played non-league opponents, the average number of goals scored was 2.9. And when League One teams played non-league opponents, the average number of goals scored was 3.5. The highest total was 13, when Shrewsbury beat Marine 11-2 in 1995.

In 64% of ties pitching League One clubs against sides from what is now the Blue Square Premier and below, more than 2.5 goals were scored. There are five such ties this weekend, with the greatest difference between teams being between Billericay of the Ryman Premier and Swansea of League One.
Fill out your e-mail address
to receive our newsletter!
E-mail address:  
First Name:  
Last Name:  

play online poker