Main Menu
Top of Page
Top of Page
Top of Page
  | Home   | Index   | Info   | This Week   | Poker   | News   | Email

Welcome to the News desk.

Trexit? Online gamblers bet on early end to Trump presidency 20/05/17
• Internet’s political stock market sees record volumes on contracts focused on whether Trump will be impeached while Ladbrokes has that as odds-on

Gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic are ramping up wagers in niche online markets over whether Donald Trump will serve out a full term as US president in the wake of controversies surrounding the dismissal of FBI director James Comey.

Some, such as the online political stock market PredictIt, have seen record volume during the last two days on contracts focused on whether Trump will be impeached. Others based in the UK are drawing bets on the less specific question of whether Trump remains in office until his term expires in January 2021.

The contract on PredictIt titled “Will Donald Trump be impeached in 2017?” saw volume of more than 100,000 contracts in the last 24 hours after reports of a memo written by Comey that said Trump had asked him to end the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s probe into ties between former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn and Russia.

At one point early on Wednesday, the price of a “yes” contract on the impeachment question jumped to a record 33 cents, implying a 33% probability that Trump would be impeached. That compares with only 7% just over a week ago.

By late in the day, however, the price had slid back to 27%, just above where it ended late Tuesday at 24%.

PredictIt is jointly run by Washington political consultancy Aristotle and Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand. All of its users are registered US voters.

The bookmaker Paddy Power Betfair said its customers had laid out more than 5,000 pounds ($6,470) on an early departure for Trump in the hours after it was reported Trump had asked Comey to shut down the FBI’s investigation of Russia ties.

In all the question of whether Trump will make an early exit has drawn more than $270,000 in wagers while a related question on whether Trump will leave in 2017, 2018, 2019 or 2020 or later has garnered more than $480,000.

British betting firm Ladbrokes cut the price of a Trump impeachment to odds-on at 4-5 from 11-10, equivalent to about 56% probability that Trump will be removed from office.

“Political punters are wondering how many more scandals can Trump overcome,” said Ladbrokes spokeswoman Jessica Bridge.

“And despite the short price on offer, money has poured in for the president to be impeached, leaving us with little option but to cut the odds.”

What is PredictIt?
PredictIt is a real money site that tests your knowledge of political and financial events by letting you make and trade predictions on the future.

The US Commodity Futures and Trading Commission provided a special exemption for PredictIt in 2014, based in part around its status as non-profit, and the small amount of money which can be exchanged.

However, while that permits it at the federal level, State law still precludes such markets in many places in the US. In Alabama, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, New York, New Jersey, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, and Washington it would be considered Gambling most likely, and thus be illegal.

By contrast, the far larger InTrade was sued - and then closed - by the CFTC as an illegal market (it tried to protect itself by being in Ireland, but that failed).

The PredictIt platform, which includes all of the information, content, features and code contained within it are owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.

PredictIt Fees
10% fee on profit.

For U.S. traders, withdrawals are subject to a 30-day holding period after your initial deposit and a 5 percent processing fee

For non-US based customers withdrawals are subject to a 60-day holding period after your initial deposit, a 5 percent processing fee and a $40 wire transfer fee!