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UK National Lotto moving from 49 balls to 59 balls 
25/06/2015 

Richard Whitehouse 
Lotto changes  behind the numbers
The UK national Lotto (which used to be called
Lottery for sensible reasons) is changing fundamentally in October this year.
The big difference is that the numbers from which you make your six selections
will go up from 1 to 49, increasing to 1 to 59.
Camelot, which runs the
lottery, says that the new system will create bigger, rolling jackpots, which
is true. This is true because you are so much less likely to win the top prize,
1 in 45 million instead of the now 1 in 14 million, and thus there will be many
more rollovers.
Lucky Dip ticket
if you match 2 numbers Camelot also says that the chances of winning a
prize have increased, this is plainly not true. What they will be doing is
offering a free lucky dip in the next lottry for anyone who matches just two
numbers. This will happen about 9% of the time and this camelot are calling a
prize. But when the chances of the lucky dip paying out money are at only
slightly above 1% then this is not really a prize. Its a chance of a prize,
which is not a prize.



Old Main
Lotto 
New Main
Lotto 
Increase 
Balls 
49 
59 

Jackpot 
13,983,816 to
1 
45,057,474 to
1 
x 3.22 
5 +
Bonus 
2,330,636 to
1 
7,509,579 to
1 
x 3.22 
5
balls 
55,491 to
1 
144,415 to
1 
x 2.60 
4
balls 
1,033 to
1 
2,180 to
1 
x 2.11 
3
balls 
57 to
1 
97 to
1 
x 1.70 
2
balls 
Nothing 
10.3 to 1
Lucky Dip 

Rafffle 
50 x
£20,000 + Super Raffles * 
1 x £1m
+ 20 x £20,000 
x 2.38 
Odds to
Win 
54 to 1 to win
cash 
93 to 1 to win
cash 
x 1.71 

*
Super Raffles had 1 or more £1m prizes. (Early rollovers had 50 more
winners added for each rollover) 
Rollover limit changed from 4 draws to a jackpot prize
cap The whole point of this exercise is to increase the number of
rollovers which from simple observation leads to increased ticket sales. The
rollover limit will move from a maximum of 4, when prizes cascade down to lower
levels, to a jackpot prize cap. This has yet to be announced but will probably
be of equal order in terms of the prize being won so 3.22 x 4, or 13 x the
jackpot size (£2.4m), so around £30m.
The main question is
when you make the National Lotto more similar to the Euro Lottery, which will
still have a bigger jackpot prize, will people switch to just doing that. The
answer should probably be yes because the National Lotto returns about 45% of
sales in prize money (is variable because it is based on variable factors),
where as the Euro Lottery returns 50% of the revenue in prixe money.
What changes should they have put in place? By all means
increase the odds of winning the jackpot so the rollover numbers look
attractive but when doing so you can move more money from the jackpot to the
lower prizes. In this way the jackpots will be bigger than now but more people
will be able to win amounts that keep their enthusiasm going for future draws.
Use the old bookmaker's technique of paying out as many people as possible so
they come back for more, and more often. 







