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How to Beat Roulette with Number
Bias |
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Forget what you know
about roulette. All casinos games have been beaten at one time or another and
roulette is no difference, in fact there are many ways to beat the casino at
it. The first thing to remember is that virtually everyone on the planet thinks
roulette is unbeatable so when you find a way to do it, it takes the casino
longer to believe it.
Number
Bias
Individual numbers have a bias, that is the pockets that collect
the ball and produce a winning number are all slightly different. If built well
the bias will be too small to use. However many pockets are composite, made up
of frets that separate numbers and coloured plastic, either red, black or green
in the bottom of the pocket.
Obviously if you are playing at an online
casino like www.schmittscasino.com then you
are there just playing to have some fun.
So if the frets are loose or
the glue holding the coloured plastic has separated then there is give in one
or both and thus they become energy absorbers. The ball landing in one of these
pockets is less likely to bounce out. Hence a bias in favour of that pocket
exists causing numbers close by to come up less frequently.
Bias Magnitude
The house edge on one number
is 2.7% (US wheels it is 5.4%) and so a number has to have at least a 2.7% bias
to break even. For practical reasons you want to be playing numbers with at
least 5% in your favour and so a minimum bias of 7.7%. This seems high at first
glance but I have seen 20% for some numbers.
Wheel Clocking
The term “clocking” is used
to describe any method where you capture results from a wheel. Its obviously
better to capture multiple wheels simultaneously. Essentially you have to write
down the winning numbers on as many wheels at once for as long as you can each
sitting. To do this you can play one wheel and watch the screens on the others.
You can construct any number of methods to get the numbers, for instance
playing in the poker room within sight of the screens. What you don't want to
do is to stand around writing numbers, you will be identified.
Number Bias Analysis
Whether by hand,
spread sheet or database, you will need a way of analysing the data. Obviously
you work out the total for each number and the frequency which it should have
occurred. You goal is to tell whether a wheel is biased enough to play. Many
pros use a Chi-squared test which is a measure of randomness, or for our
purposes, non-randomness. I prefer calculating the standard deviation from
expectation. Above 3 stds (standard deviations) means its less than 1% chance
that its due to chance.
Identifying
Biased Wheels
You'll need a minimum of eight numbers to play, so you
want to see 8 numbers where your edge is 5% or over. Most often biased numbers
will be in pairs, sometimes triples or more. However good your wheel is you are
still going to need about 3000 recorded spins to get a reasonable picture of
how it is performing. 3000 is not enough for a definitive picture but it is
most often enough to know if you have a wheel to continue with or move on to
pastures new.
It is crucial to be able to identify each wheel by
physical marks as the casino will move wheels around. It is also critical to
get your data in a short amount of time as the casino may have bias detection
software. If they detect a bias they will not do something about it instantly.
But they will eventually, so do long shifts and play with real money soon as
you can.
Ball Type
There are a
few types of balls used which differ in the material they are made of. You most
certainly want the casino to be using a hard ball that bounces well. This
amplifies any bias. Soft balls have been seen to win but are much more
difficult.
Conclusion
Many
biased wheel plays have occurred all around the world. It is difficult but very
sweet when you find one. Avoid gambling and guess work. Be strict with your
analysis. Stay away from one piece metal wheels like the Starburst from John
Huxley, they can not be beaten in this way. |
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