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Kevin Pullein
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Friday 23 Jan 2009
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In the FA Cup, away wins
occur more often than they do in either the Premier or Football League
ground advantage is simply less important. The statistics show that in the past
15 seasons in the Premier and Football Leagues, away teams won 27% of games,
drew 28% and lost 45%. In the FA Cup, away teams won 30% of games, drew 27% and
lost 43%.
We can see that the frequency of away wins in the knockout
ties was three percentage points higher. If you thought this increase might be
connected in some way with the greater number of mismatches that occur in the
FA Cup, think again. In the Premier League, away teams won 27% of games. In FA
Cup ties featuring two representatives of the Premier League, away teams won
31% of games. In other words, the increase in away wins was even greater in
contests of the highest quality. |
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Differences of 3-4 percentage points are
quite small but in result-related markets, prices are hardly ever wrong by more
than a small amount. In practice, successful betting consists of being able to
identify small influences on results that bookmakers sometimes overlook. And
this is one of them.
Imagine an FA Cup tie between two teams of equal
ability. Assuming ground advantage to be worth what it is in the Premier or
Football Leagues, a bookmaker trying vainly to build a profit margin into his
prices might quote an away win at 52. The true odds would be 2310
in your favour, if only slightly.
Why should ground advantage be
worth less in the FA Cup? On Monday 2,985 Everton fans were at Anfield for the
draw with Liverpool in the Premier League. On Sunday, 6,100 will be there when
the teams meet in the FA Cup. Away teams receive more tickets than they do in
the Premier or Football League and being roared on by a greater proportion of
the supporters inspires teams to achieve better results.
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